North America faces growing electricity supply risks
NERC warns electricity demand from AI and digital growth is straining North America’s power system.
Image for illustrative purposes
USA, Washington, D.C.: The 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) from NERC highlights increasing resource adequacy risks across North America over the next ten years. Summer peak demand is projected to rise by 224 GW, more than 69 % above 2024 forecasts, driven largely by new AI data centres and the expanding digital economy. Winter demand growth is even higher, with 246 GW expected, reflecting evolving electricity consumption patterns.
John Moura, NERC director of Reliability Assessment and Performance Analysis, said: “This report is not a prediction of failure but an early warning. Risks remain manageable if new resources are deployed on schedule.”
The report notes that winter supply shortfalls are a key concern, as retiring generators with diverse fuels are replaced mostly by solar, batteries, and natural-gas-fired units. Battery and solar projects now match in scale, while gas-fired additions account for 15 % of projected capacity growth, and wind and hybrid systems 8% each. Uncertainty around the timing and scale of new resource deployment is rising despite growing interconnection queues.
Mark Olson, NERC manager of Reliability Assessments, added: “Industry and regulators are taking steps to strengthen the grid. Retirements are high at 105 GW over the next decade but have reduced by 10 GW since the previous assessment. Market tools like capacity accreditation now better identify risks from variable generation.”
To address these challenges, NERC recommends accelerating resource development, managing generator retirements, performing robust adequacy assessments, and coordinating electricity and natural gas operations. Streamlined permitting, wide-area risk analysis, and maintaining essential reliability services are also advised.
The 2025 LTRA remains a comprehensive, independent evaluation of the bulk power system’s ability to meet North America’s growing electricity needs using probabilistic assessments and energy risk metrics.
Source: NERC
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